Project Management 1st Edition A Risk-Management Approach

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Phương pháp quản lý rủi ro
Khi số lượng và quy mô của các dự án tiếp tục tăng, nhu cầu về người quản lý dự án hiệu quả cũng ngày càng tăng. Quản lý dự án: Phương pháp tiếp cận quản lý rủi ro chuẩn bị cho sinh viên giải quyết thành công nhiều thách thức, yếu tố và tình huống mà người quản lý dự án gặp phải. Các tác giả Ted Klastorin và Gary Mitchell nhấn mạnh tầm quan trọng của việc giảm thiểu rủi ro ở mọi giai đoạn, giúp sinh viên tránh được những cạm bẫy phổ biến dẫn đến thất bại của dự án, lịch trình bị ảnh hưởng hoặc chi phí phát sinh. Các ví dụ, trường hợp, bài toán đã giải và bài toán thực hành trong thế giới thực giúp đưa các phương pháp vào cuộc sống. Người đọc sẽ được trang bị những công cụ cần thiết để lập kế hoạch, tiến độ và giám sát ngay cả những dự án phức tạp nhất trong nhiều lĩnh vực thị trường. Đi kèm với tiêu đề này: Trang web Tài nguyên dành cho Giảng viên được bảo vệ bằng mật khẩu (chính thức được gọi là SAGE Edge) cung cấp quyền truy cập vào tất cả các tài nguyên dành riêng cho văn bản, bao gồm ngân hàng bài kiểm tra và các trang trình bày PowerPoint® dành riêng cho từng chương có thể chỉnh sửa.

Foreword
Preface
Acknowledgments
About the Authors
1 An Introduction to Project Management
1.1 Introduction
1.1.1 Risk Management
1.1.2 Increasing Project Complexity
1.1.3 Change Management
1.1.4 Shrinking Project Life Cycles
1.1.5 Newer Methodologies
1.1.6 Implications and Costs of a Lack of Project Management
1.2 What Defines a Project?
1.2.1 A Taxonomy of Project Types
1.2.2 Project Governance
1.3 The Project Life Cycle
1.4 Measures of Project Success and Failure
1.4.1 Organizational Structure and Project Success
1.4.2 Success and Failure of Information Technology Projects
1.4.3 When to “Pull the Plug”
1.5 Managing Project Risks
1.5.1 Risk Classes Defined
1.6 Project Management Trade-Offs
1.7 Program Versus Project Management
1.8 Agile Project Management: A Modern Development
1.9 A Brief History of Project Management
1.10 Overview of the Text
1.10.1 Important Concepts to Remember
Summary
2 Project Initiation and Selection
2.1 Introduction
2.2 The Relationship of Projects to Strategic and Operational Goals
2.2.1 Initiating Project Proposals
2.3 Simple Numerical Measures
2.3.1 Payback Period
2.3.2 Net Present Value
2.3.3 Internal Rate of Return
2.3.4 Accounting Rate of Return
2.3.5 Profitability Index
2.4 Advanced Measures
2.4.1 Risk-Adjusted Discount Rates
2.5 Implementing “Options Thinking”
2.5.1 Putting Options Thinking Into Practice
2.5.2 Project Timing: The Defer Option
2.6 “Stage Gates” Defined
2.7 Ranking and Scoring Methods
2.8 Evaluating Project Portfolios
2.8.1 Importance of Project Portfolios
2.8.2 Mathematical Programming Model That Defines a Project Portfolio
Summary
3 Project Planning
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Outline of a Project Plan
3.2.1 Executive Summary
3.2.2 Project Description
3.2.3 Approach and Phasing Strategy
3.2.4 Assumptions and Constraints
3.2.5 Critical Success Factors
3.2.6 Project Completion Criteria
3.2.7 Responsibilities Matrix
3.2.8 Project Schedule
3.2.9 Time and Cash Management Plan
3.2.10 Quality Assurance Plan
3.3 Risk Management Strategy and Plan
3.3.1 The Need for a Risk Management Plan
3.3.2 Strategies for Managing Project Risks
3.3.3 Understanding Risk
3.3.4 Risk Management Tactical Plan
3.4 Communications Strategy and Plan
3.5 Identifying Project Requirements
3.5.1 Types of Requirements
3.5.2 Characteristics of Good Requirements
Summary
3 Supplement: Agile Project Management
3S.1 Introduction
3S.2 Agile Project Management
3S.2.1 Advantages of Agile PM
3S.2.2 Disadvantages of Agile PM
3S.3 Implementing Agile PM
3S.4 Scrum and Extreme Programming
3S.5 Velocity and Burndown Charts
3S.5.1 Burndown Charts
3S.6 Risk Management and the Agile–Traditional Continuum
3S.7 Agile PM Analogy: American Football
Summary
4 Defining Project Content
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Costs Defined
4.2.1 Resource (Direct) Costs
4.2.2 Time-Dependent Costs
4.2.3 Incentive Payments: Penalty Costs and Bonuses
4.3 Defining Project Work
4.3.1 The Work Breakdown Structure
4.3.2 Constructing a WBS
4.3.3 Guidelines for Defining Tasks
4.4 Estimating Work Content and Task Duration
4.4.1 Methodologies for Estimating Project Duration and Cost
4.4.2 Estimating Software Projects
4.5 Deterministic Versus Stochastic Estimates
4.5.1 Deterministic Estimates
4.5.2 Stochastic Estimates
4.6 Common Pitfalls and Perils
4.6.1 Insufficient Task Granularity
4.6.2 Problems Associated With Task Durations
4.6.3 Internally Inconsistent Estimates
4.6.4 Estimates That Do Not Facilitate Project Monitoring and Control
4.6.5 Tasks That Focus on Work Rather Than Deliverables
4.6.6 Project Schedules Not Based on the Risk Management Plan
Summary
4 Supplement: Review of Probability and Distribution Functions
4S.1 Introduction
4S.2 Probability Distributions
4S.2.1 Discrete Probability Distributions
4S.2.2 Continuous Probability Distributions
4S.3 Summary Measures for Probability Distributions
4S.3.1 Mean
4S.3.2 Variance
4S.3.3 Standard Deviation
4S.4 Common Discrete Distributions
4S.4.1 The Binomial Distribution
4S.4.2 The Poisson Distribution
4S.5 Common Continuous Distributions
4S.5.1 The Beta Distribution
4S.5.2 The Continuous Uniform Distribution
4S.5.3 The Exponential Distribution
4S.5.4 The Shifted Exponential Distribution
4S.5.5 The Normal Distribution
4S.5.6 The Triangular Distribution
4S.6 Sums of Random Variables
Summary
5 Scheduling a Deterministic Project
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Determining a Project’s Schedule
5.2.1 Precedence Networks
5.3 The Critical Path Method
5.3.1 CPM Algorithm (Calculations)
5.4 Calculating Slacks (Floats)
5.4.1 Total Slack
5.4.2 Free Slack
5.4.3 Safety Slack
5.4.4 Independent Slack
5.4.5 Putting It All Together
5.5 Types of Precedence Relations
5.6 Linear Programming Formulation
5.6.1 Formulating the Project LP
5.6.2 Solving the Project LP (Table Approach)
5.6.3 Solving the Project LP (Matrix Approach)
5.6.4 Some Important Variations
5.7 Gantt Charts: Representing the Schedule Graphically
5.8 Activity-on-Arc Precedence Networks
5.8.1 Comparison of AOA and AON Networks
5.8.2 CPM Calculations for AOA Networks
5.9 A Note Regarding Software Programs
Summary
6 Project Trade-Offs and Risk Mitigation
6.1 Introduction
6.2 Preparing a Budget: The Basic Time–Cost Relationship
6.3 Project Compression: Time–Cost Trade-Offs
6.3.1 Trade-Offs Between Direct Resource Costs and Overhead/Indirect Costs
6.3.2 Using Linear Programming to Solve the Time–Cost Trade-Off Problem
6.3.3 Using a (Matrix) Solver Model to Solve the Time–Cost Trade-Off Problem
6.3.4 Nonlinear Time–Cost Trade-Offs
6.3.5 Discrete Time–Cost Trade-Offs
6.4 Risk Management and Time–Cost Trade-Offs
6.5 Time–Cost Trade-Offs in Stochastic Projects
6.6 Other Trade-Off Issues: Concurrent Engineering and Coordination Costs
6.6.1 Concurrent Engineering: Serial Versus Parallel Processing
Summary
7 Scheduling Stochastic Projects
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Proactive Versus Reactive Scheduling
7.3 Using Buffers to Protect the Schedule
7.3.1 Robust Scheduling
7.3.2 Risk Pooling
7.4 Planning Under Task Time Uncertainty Using Classic PERT
7.4.1 Classic PERT
7.4.2 Calculating Task Expected Durations and Variances
7.4.3 Finding Path Expected Durations and Variances
7.4.4 Calculating Starting and Ending Time Probabilities
7.4.5 Limitations of the Classic PERT Model
7.4.6 Avoiding Classic PERT Biases: Setting a Project Buffer
7.5 Planning Under Task Time Uncertainty Using Monte Carlo Simulation Models
7.5.1 Simulating a Project With Continuous Probability Distributions
7.5.2 Simulating a Project With Discrete Probability Distributions
7.6 Managing Exogenous Uncertainties
7.6.1 Cycles and Probabilistic Branching: A New Product Development Example
7.6.2 Analyzing Cost Uncertainties
7.6.3 Addressing Resource Uncertainties
7.7 Task Time Uncertainty and the Theory of Constraints
7.7.1 Implications of Task Uncertainty
7.7.2 Schoenberger’s Hypothesis
Summary
7 Supplement: Monte Carlo Simulation
7S.1 Introduction
7S.2 The Basic Concept
7S.3 Generating Random Variates
7S.3.1 The Inverse Transform Method
7S.4 Generate Trials
7S.4.1 Replication Method
7S.4.2 Single-Trial Worksheet Method
7S.5 Analyzing the Simulation
7S.5.1 Calculating Probabilities
7S.5.2 Calculating Inverse Cumulative Probabilities
Summary
8 Managing Project Resources
8.1 Introduction
8.2 Defining Resource Types
8.2.1 Rate-Constrained Resources
8.2.2 Capacity-Constrained Resources
8.2.3 Doubly Constrained Resources
8.3 Criteria for Scheduling Resource Types
8.3.1 Resource Leveling Problem
8.3.2 Resource Allocation Problem
8.4 The Resource Leveling Problem Defined
8.5 The Rate-Constrained Resource Allocation Problem
8.5.1 Solving the Rate-Constrained Resource Allocation Problem: Ranking the Tasks
8.6 Heuristics for the Rate-Constrained Resource Allocation Problem
8.6.1 Task-Based Algorithms (Serial Heuristics)
8.6.2 Time-Based Algorithms (Parallel Heuristics)
8.7 An Easily Solvable Rate-Constrained Resource Allocation Problem: The Critical Chain Defined
8.8 The Critical Chain Methodology
8.9 Defining Resource Buffers
8.10 Capacity-Constrained Resource Allocation
8.11 Supply Chain Management and Projects
8.12 Impact of Worker Behaviors on Project Outcomes
8.12.1 Parkinson’s Law
8.12.2 Procrastinating Workers
Summary
9 Project Teams
9.1 Introduction
9.2 Forming a Project Team
9.2.1 Determining Team Composition
9.2.2 Bringing a Team Together
9.2.3 Promoting Team and Project Success
9.3 Assigning Potential Team Members to a Project
9.3.1 Finding the Smallest Team That Satisfies Skill Requirements
9.3.2 Minimizing Costs of a Team That Satisfies Skill Requirements
9.4 Making Trade-Off Decisions When Creating Project Teams
9.4.1 Team Versus Inpidual Performance
9.4.2 The Cost of Coordination and Communication
9.4.3 Makespan Reduction Versus Team Efficiency
9.5 Determining Team Size When Resource Availability Is Uncertain
9.5.1 Finding the Optimal (Cost-Minimizing) Team Size With Uncertain Resources
9.6 Managing the Project Team
9.6.1 Planning the Project as a Team
9.6.2 Using Performance Incentives to Manage Schedule Risk
9.6.3 Conflict in Project Teams
9.6.4 Long-Term Team Considerations
9.6.5 Publicizing Team Success
9.6.6 Launching the Project
9.7 Managing the End of Project Transition
9.7.1 Project Team Performance Evaluations
Summary
10 Managing Decentralized Projects
10.1 Introduction
10.2 Decentralized Projects
10.3 Subcontracting Issues Defined
10.3.1 Evaluating Potential Contractors
10.3.2 Request for Proposals and Request for Bids
10.4 Underlying Economic Concepts
10.5 Contract Types Defined
10.5.1 Fixed-Price Contracts
10.5.2 Cost-Plus Contracts (Also Known as Cost-Reimbursable Contracts)
10.5.3 Time and Material Contracts
10.5.4 Performance-Based Contracts
10.5.5 Incentive Contracts
10.5.6 Optional-Scope Contracts
10.6 Defining a Contract That Maximizes the Project Value
10.6.1 When Is an Incentive Contract a Coordinating Contract?
10.6.2 Comparing the Incentive Contract With a Fixed-Price Contract
10.6.3 Final Issues Related to Defining a Coordinating Contract
Summary
11 Assessing Project Progress
11.1 Introduction
11.2 Assessing In-Control Versus Out-of-Control Project States
11.2.1 Project Control System Illustrated
11.3 Earned Value Analysis Defined
11.3.1 Actual Cost of Work Performed
11.3.2 Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled
11.3.3 Budgeted Cost of Work Performed
11.3.4 Total Variance and Time Variance Defined
11.3.5 Critical Ratio
11.3.6 Fixed Rules to Estimate Earned Value
11.4 Limitations of Earned Value Analysis
11.5 Updating Cost and Schedule Forecasts
11.5.1 Naive Method 1
11.5.2 Naive Method 2
11.5.3 Using a Monte Carlo Simulation Model to Update Forecasts
Summary
12 Managing a Multiproject Environment
12.1 Introduction
12.2 Managing the Project Portfolio
12.2.1 Selecting and Funding Projects
12.2.2 Assigning Resources to Multiple Projects
12.2.3 Scheduling Projects With Shared Resources
12.2.4 Multitasking Shared Resources
12.2.5 Prioritizing Projects in the Real World: Should Incentives Be Used?
12.2.6 Scheduling When Projects Arrive at Random Times
12.3 Ensuring Projects Deliver Their Value Propositions
12.3.1 Project Audits and Data Collection
12.3.2 Managing Stage (Toll) Gates
12.3.3 Project Performance Measurement
12.3.4 Project Closure
12.4 The Role of the Project Manager
12.4.1 The Project Manager as Business Leader
12.4.2 The Work of a Project Manager
12.4.3 Selecting a Project Manager
12.4.4 Project Manager Competency Frameworks
12.4.5 Sources of Influence
12.4.6 Finding the Perfect Project Manager
12.5 The Role of the PMO
12.5.1 PMO Organizational Scope
12.5.2 PMO Functional Scope
12.5.3 PMO Contributions to Project Success
Summary
Appendix A: Textbook Notations Defined
Appendix B: MS Project Practice Problems
Glossary
Bibliography
Index